"It's on our list of things to do."
With an uncharacteristic smirk on his face and confidence in his voice, Bob Bradley uttered those words back in February when asked about the U.S. national team winning in Mexico. The Americans had just defeated Mexico in Columbus and Bradley had every reason to feel confident about his team's chances of coming to Mexico and recording the team's first victory on American soil.
Six months later, we will find out if Bradley and his men can do what no other U.S. team has ever done, win in Mexico and win in Estadio Azteca. The Americans will face Mexico today (4pm, Mun2, Telemundo) with an entire country desperate to see their team beat the United States and keep alive Mexico's hopes of qualifying for the World Cup.
Yes, for all the built-in drama and intensity of this series there is also the fact that Mexico's World Cup qualifying campaign has been brutally disappointing and anything short of a win today will jeopardize Mexico's chances of qualifying. That fact has added even more pressure to a match that already had plenty.
So what will the game itself look like today? What players should we expect to play key roles? Here's a closer look at the potential lineups, the match-ups and the key factors in today's game:
We can start with the projected lineups and how the teams will look:
USA vs. Mexico: The lineups
===============Ochoa===================
Osorio====Galindo=====Salcido=======Rojas
--------------CHING-----------DAVIES---------------
==========Torrado======Castro===========
DONOVAN----------------------------------DEMPSEY
Dos Santos========================Guardado
-------------BRADLEY---------CLARK---------------
=========Blanco=========Vela=============
BOCANEGRA--ONYEWU--DEMERIT------SPECTOR
----------------------HOWARD------------------------
Both teams have similar questions about their lineups. Who will play right back and who will play up top?
For the USA, the big question is whether Bob Bradley will stick with Confederations Cup forwards Davies and Altidore, or start Ching in place of one of them. I'm going with a Ching-Davies combo because both are more fit right now than Altidore, who hasn't played in more than a month and hasn't trained that much.
Right back is also a question, with Spector and Cherundolo vying for the nod. Spector was very good in the Confederations Cup, but Cherundolo is fit and has the experience edge. We give the nod to Spector today.
For Mexico, whether or not Cuauhtemoc Blanco will start is a big question. Blanco is talking like he will be a starter, but it is not a lock considering he just played a tough 90 minutes on Sunday for the Chicago Fire. He's got the experience, and Aguirre loves him, so don't be surprised to see him get the nod.
Now, if Blanco starts, you could see him up top as a withdrawn forward or in a central role in a 4-2-3-1. An attack with Blanco, Guardado, Dos Santos and Vela would be extremely dangerous and one the American defense will have a hard time keeping off the scoreboard.
If Blanco does NOT start, you'd see Guille Franco up top with Vela in a 4-4-2 formation, a lineup that is getting plenty of play in projections among Mexican media. Franco seems like the more sensible pick because he's a holding forward who Dos Santos and Vela can run off.
So what are the keys today for a United States victory (or draw)? Here are five to consider:
Withstanding the early onslaught: The first 20 minutes of the match will be a frenetic mess with deafening crowd noise and a Mexico team that will surely attack in waves looking for that vital first goal. The U.S. defense must show the defensive discipline that helped it beat Spain, and cannot let the Mexicans get on the board early on. That doesn't mean bunkering, but it does mean keeping good shape as a formation and getting the ball to the attackers to help relieve that early pressure. The longer the Americans keep the shutout the faster Mexico will lose its advantage in the stands.
Containing the wings: Gio Dos Santos and Guardado are two fast, skillful and extremely dangerous players who will provide a stiff test for Spector and Bocanegra, who will need consistent help from Donovan and Dempsey, as well as central midfielders Bradley and Clark to contain Mexico's dynamic wing duo.
Getting Donovan the ball: It's no secret who the USA's top attacker is, or who Mexico will key on. Donovan is playing at a high level and his speed should be able to cause fits for Mexico's right back, whether it is Ricardo Osorio or Efrain Juarez.
So how confident is Donovan these days? Listen to this quote from him on Tuesday:
“This is the best I’ve ever played, but I want to stress that it’s not something that’s going to come in a stretch and then go away,” Donovan told media on Tuesday. “This is me now, this is how I play.”
Handle the Mexico counterattack: Anyone who saw the Gold Cup final knows that Mexico has the weapons to punish opponents on the counterattack, but the key to stopping that will be to not get too stretched on the attack. That shouldn't be a problem for a disciplined group of American players who are considerably better than the U.S. squad that got torched in the Gold Cup final.
Make the crowd turn on Mexico: Having a crowd of more than 100,000 crazed fans has its obvious benefits, but also its drawbacks. In this case, the drawback comes when Mexico struggles, and if the Mexicans can't crack the U.S. defense, or worse yet for them, fall behind, the Azteca fans will start to turn on their team and apply even more pressure to a Mexico squad under enough pressure. This is why Mexico will be desperate to find an early goal.
---------------------
So what is my prediction? I think we will have a 1-1 tie, with Donovan and Guardado scoring the goals in a result the Americans will gladly take.
SBI will be providing commentary throughout the day (internet connection permitting) and during the match, so be sure to follow our coverage all day long. For now, make this post your place for all match-day discussions.
What is your take on today's match? Who do you think will be the key for Mexico? What do you see as the most important factor in stopping Mexico today? What do you see today's result being?
Share your thoughts below.
