The latest from Donovan's German Excursion

While the U.S. national team prepares for its upcoming World Cup qualifier against Guatemala on Wednesday, Landon Donovan is half a world away, still training with Bayern Munich.

The fine folks at Bayern Munich were kind enough to shoot a video of today's training session, with a special focus on Donovan. Several of Bayern's top players are on international duty, but the video still offers a long look at Donovan in training (apparently the Germans have caught on to the fact that American soccer fans are suckers for video clips.) You can skip past the first 10 minutes of the video (unless you're a fan of stretching exercises and simple warm-ups.

While there has been no new information or news about a potential Donovan transfer to Bayern I am going to set the line at 5-1 on Donovan moving to Bayern Munich this winter. Place your (imaginary) bets here.

Share your thoughts on the video, and Donovan's German vacation, in the comments section below.

Comments

[andy b.]

I think your odds are about right, Ives-- if forced I'd place money on him going-- but I'm sad to see it. I really don't think Germany is a good idea. I believe the psychological demons are a little to ferocious for Mr. Donovan there. Any other top league would be better.

[Steven C]

5-1 are rather long odds, imo. I'm gonna go a lil further. 3-1.

If he gets a chance, he better pony up and stick this move out. Doesn't get a whole lot better than Bayern Munchen.

[Will]

I'm going to say the odds are a little slimmer, not based on ability so much as the MLS's willingness to let him go. I think the MLS will overvalue him since in this league he's a star and has some marketing ability in one of the league's biggest markets.

[Rudy]

Ives, does your line include the chance that the League foils the move?

[Sigmund Freud]

They definitely have figured out we are watching. The first line dedicates the video to us and says Landon will be in the lead roll of the video.

[BlueWhiteLion]

thought it interesting that the warmups were in a mix of German or American-sounding English.

Donovan looked more "comfy". His performance was mixed. It seemed that he got more energized after he scored a goal near the end. Actually, on that goal, I wondered if "THIS" is what Donovan was made fore: seeing the scoring opp and going for it. He is a decent passer and player in the back and middle third, but that doesn't appear to be his love. But he comes alive when he can see the pieces falling into place, the lanes opening up. I like the sound of "withdrawn striker" or some sort of concoction for him.

For those who complained of him being a hobbit . . . besides Ribery, have you noticed the little lamb . . . err, Lahm?

[Sigmund Freud]

Oh...they actually translated in the next paragraph. How thoughtful. I think I will now go out and purchase my jersey.

[Chad]

Isn't his trial up yet? Swear it's been 10 days...

I agree on 3-1 odds for the transfer.

[Mike G]

That sounds about right, whats your line on him leaving for Europe for any club. I have to think its about 1.5 to 1. Landon is very marketable and impossible to replace on an individual basis, but with the money and allocations they would get back the Galaxy could fill a lot of holes.

[orange315]

MLS should let him go if they want to do the right the thing for US soccer overall...not sure if they think along those lines though
I don't recall anyone mentioning his lack of size before he stood next to Toni, and besides his one ugly volley over the bar he looks pretty good in the training, good luck to him

[milkshake of despair]

1-2 on him moving at all. Count me in for 100 chips while we're at it.

MLS will put to high a price on him that no team will be willing to pay.

[mikeK]

5 to 1?

I.
Bet it.
Awl.

Horrible KGB from Rounders impressions aside, I think he's going to end up in Bayern. 2 or 3 to 1 would make me think more.

[simms21]

Ives, great video! Can you or anyone create some magic and cook up some arsenal training videos of this kind of length? Much appreciated

[KingSnake]

That should be a caption competition. My entry:

Donovan swallows

[Don]

i say the odds are 3:1. i would definitely buy a donovan jersey if the move happens. the dark navy bayern away kit is nice

[Milo]

So agree with you BlueWhiteLion,

Landy imo is a striker a withdrwan striker a very very poor version of Messi.

put him up top next to a target foward or a number 9.

[gino]

Did the equipment guy intentionally give Donovan the biggest practice vest they had? Or is even a Bayern practice vest too big for Donovan to fill

[Nutmegger]

My gut tells me this is wired already. NM

[james]

I think Donovan is going to Europe but not with the bavarian club, instead maybe portsmouth or another team because bayern munich will probably get a european tested player like Javier Saviola.

[A.S.]

"I am going to set the line at 5-1 on Donovan moving to Bayern Munich this winter. Place your (imaginary) bets here"

Wait, you only think there is a 17% chance he goes to BM? Or am I reading the post incorrectly? (Usually one would write the odds are 1-5 on something occurring if you think there is an 83% chance.)

[jloome]

17% would be generous to Donovan. His fans here spend way, way too much time watching American soccer. He's not the calibre of player most people here seem to think. Slight guys who can finish accurately are a dime a dozen in European football; it's the guys who can create their own chances who make it, and that's not Donovan.

[SonicDeathMonkey]

@Mikek
"Pay dis man hees mun-ee"

[Isaac]

Lookin good, Landy.

[Nicole]

Landon has looked good in all 3 videos.

I'm excited. I hope this happens. I'll definitely get a jersey!

[Wispy]

KingSnake -- I laughed out loud at that one.

[Amy]

Does this mean that FSC will start to air some of the Bundesliga games?

[shelbo]

Amy, Gol TV airs most Bayern Munich games. I watched this weekend as Michael Bradley took the victory away from them with a late goal (nice header). If Donovan goes to Bayern, we can watch him battle Bradley for the Bundesliga crown!

[Michael F.]

My bet is he is already gone, the deal is already agreed to. Disagree about his German "demons". He's going to prove it this time, he has the talent and more importantly, this time he has the desire. I hope he does it, I'm pulling for him.

[Chris W.]

This is from Don Garber's Q&A with NYTimes:

Q: After all the attention David Beckham drew with his loan deal to A.C. Milan, there now seems to be a similar level of interest, shall we say, in Landon Donovan training with Bayern Munich and apparently interested in a permanent move to Europe.

A: Landon is practicing with Bayern now and we expect him back for the start of the season. From what we’ve read, it appears he is more open to looking overseas than he had been over the last number of years. He’s a contracted player for the Galaxy, a candidate for M.V.P. We see him having value to M.L.S. for many years.

Q: If it got this far, what kind of transfer fee do you think the league would seek for Donovan?

A: Hard to put a figure on it, but we had a had 20-year-old, Jozy Altidore, who has only played in a handful of games for the national team who we sold for $10 million. It’s hard to imagine that perhaps our most valuable player isn’t worth at least that much, if not much more. If someone wants to buy Landon they need to be aware that he is one of most valuable players in the in history of our league.

I hate Don Garber right now. Let Landon go. American soccer needs Donovan playing for Bayern Munich. Quit being a selfish ass and let him go.

Based on that Q&A, I don't see him going unless Bayern pays top dollar.

[Betinho]

jloome - Jurgen Klinsmann has stated Landon the best in North America - including Mexico.

If that is true - which one could very easily argue that it is - he definitely belongs on a top tier European team. And to take that a step further, if the manager of one of those top tier teams believes it to be true, the odds then suddenly are very much (read greater than 17%) in favor of that happening.

[Michael F.]

Watching it now: At 9:23 he's a the 6 - shoots over the net. Ugh!
But the two goals ate the end make up for it.

[Betinho]

Chris W - Of course Garber is going to take that stance. He has to posture for the best price possible. Nothing he said is untrue. His "value to the MLS for many years" could come in different forms. It could come as a record sale and then an eventual return when his brand is even larger and more meeaningful to the league. In the meantime the record sale could afford the league continued growth.

[RK]

This is Bayern Munich's plan to help Jack Warner and T&T by offering LD this bogus trial...

[Martha]

Bayern are lousy with strikers, all of whom are better than Donovan. I don't get why they'd want him.

[Peter Schein]

So Landon's too small..
Then how has Steve Cherondolo survived all these years as a defender at Hanover ? Toni is 6'3"...makes most people look small. Anyone who can make a mark (no German counterfeiting pun intended) in their debut will have a shot at continued opportunities. But it is a dog eat dog world in big time int'l football. Landon as a dog is a labrapoodle.

[BigWave]

It's not a matter of why Bayern wants him. That's irrelevant. Klinsmann is high on Donovan. If Donovan gets signed it's because of Klinsmann and Klinsmann alone. This does involve some risks though. If FCB sign Landon and Klinsmann resigns/gets fired during Landon's contract, then Landon would most likely be without playing time...hopefully, in that scenario he would be sent out somewhere on loan (in 1.Bundesliga NOT MLS). We'll see...I'm sure that FCB will make a bid. I'm just not sure that they'll haggle with MLS too much.

[doug]

I would say 5-1 is about right. He looks to be going. Germany may not be the best league for him, but Klinsmann is the right coach for him. He's seen Landon up close while in LA, he wouldnt have brought him all the way out here if it wasnt going to amount to anything. All Landon needed to succeed at Leverkusen the first time, was a coach to believ and have faith in him. He is a much different player now then he was then. If he goes, I wish him all the best of luck

[BlueWhiteLion]

Exactly, Betinho. Chris W: we are fortunate to have Garber stick to his guns like that. It is good for the league. We have to start flexing what we have. As much as I think it would be great to see Landon succeed overseas, especially Bayern, MLS (to use a Canine theme going here) needs to be bigger than other league's lapdogs. Bayern will be a tough bargaining partner, however. There are many who would like to go there. But players like Arshavin won't come cheap, either.

I find it quite interesting, maybe amazing, that Klinsmann says Landon is the best in North America, including Mexico.

[Chris W.]

However, when Garber flexes his muscles too much, we end up having a Taylor Twelman situation. The MLS asks for too much, the euro teams say no, then the player is left being extremely unhappy. Look at Twellman's production this year. Not nearly as good as previous years. Also, you think Donovan will be productive in the MLS next year if he gets blocked? Donovan will just be pissed off and we will have a season of arguments and it will not end well. What will end up happening is the best American soccer player of all time being anti- the American soccer league. This will end up being a horrible situation for everyone.

[Joe Quake]

I don't think LD will stop trying if he stays in MLS. If he is forced to stay in MLS, he'll be disappointed, play out 2009 and leave on a free transfer in 2010 (I think he has player options for two years after 2009). For me, the question is opportunity cost. If MLS is offered $5M for LD, will the league make more money by keeping him for one more season? Maybe. At $10M? Maybe not. Of course, this assumes that this decision will be made rationally.

I thought LD looked okay in today's video. None of the other players really stuck out either though, but they are also not on trial. Still, as AI says, we're talking about practice - a full field scrimmage would be more interesting.

[BrianK]

How about this:

Sell Landon to Bayern for $15+million,...and buy Nery Castillo for the Galaxy.

[Monkey Boy]

The Bundesliga is the most balanced top league in Europe, with a similar style to MLS, although much higher quality. That is why it's a great fit for Donovan. FCB have a ton of competitions/games throughout the year, and because their league is too even, they can't really take it easy in any game. Heck 'Gladbach are mid/bottom of the table and they tied Bayern on Saturday againts Bayern's top players.
As mentioned, there's no point comparing Donovan to a 6'5" Toni, who makes most players look small. Of course he would make a good 1-2 punch partnering with Toni and taking advantage of all the attention he gets. Bayern's speed comes from the midfield, so having a striker with Donovan's speed/control off the bench would be a great asset when they need a goal.

[Tom 4]

I am pretty sure Donovan will end up at BM. BM is having trouble with one of its partying forwards so its a good time to insert LD. Also, beaside Klinsy, lets not forget they have Nick Theslof as an assistant coach which will make it easier for LD to acclimate.

[Mark]

if Bayern makes an offer, I just hope the MLS doesnt try to get more money or something along those lines; he has paid his dues in the MLS and enless the offer is super low it would be just wrong for them to block it.

[Mike_D]

Martha,
They have Toni and Klose, and Podolski who wants to leave. They need a 3rd striker. Also, people are selling Landon's ability short. He has speed, skill and versatility to play in a number of attacking roles. He has a great first touch and passing ability and an accurate shot. Talent has never been the question, it's always been about heart and determination. I hope he gets the chance and succeeds.

[Peen Us]

Garber's NY Times comment suggests he's going nowhere. Donovan is the real face of MLS, as much as I hate to say it. If I were Garber I wouldn't let him go for less than 10 million - without him there is potentially no star power in Los Angeles, and that's a problem (not a Galaxy fan by a longshot).

[Sigmund Freud]

Peen Us -
Beckham?

[Raghu]

I'm not a huge Lando fan. BUT:
I do think he's the best player in N. America.
I do think it would be a real shame to the progress of the US Nats if his transfer is ugly.
I'm not sure if BM is the best place for him - but like that if he sees time, he's gonna be playing with real talent.
I do think Garber needs to position himself in the right financial place for MLS. With the last one being said - I really really hope they let him go.

[BCC]

He would fit much better with a Spanish club. The Bundesliga is a third tier league.

[Gene_SF]

Landon has got speed and passing ability, though I am not sure he's got the consistent finishing ability you'd need for a club like Bayern. But I think Landon needs a challenge if he is going to lead the U.S. national team. I am happy with the progress of the MLS, but I think he's done all he can here. So, let's hope he gets a shot at transfer, either to Bayern, or may be to a lesser-known club where he'd get playing time.

[zach]

exciting news. I go with Ives' odds. Clip was sub par compared to the two posted on this blog earlier in the week.
Thanks though!