A primer on MLS expansion draft strategy (why Pappa and Parke were left exposed)

                                              Photo by ISIphotos.com

When the lists were released on Monday of players who would be made available in the expansion draft, two names that drew plenty of scrutiny from fans were those of Chicago midfielder Marco Pappa and New York Red Bulls defender Jeff Parke. Not protecting these two fan favorites might seem like shaky moves but there are methods to the madness.

In the case of Pappa, sources tell me the Guatamalan winger will see his salary requirement increase dramatically if he were to join another MLS team, so a high price tag (nowhere near the $33,000 he made in 2008) is a safe bet to scare off a Seattle team that already has two wingers in Freddie Ljungberg and Sanna Nyassi. Seattle would be more inclined to select either veteran defender Brandon Prideaux or first-year midfielder Stephen King.

The case of Jeff Parke is a bit different.

Parke just completed the final year of his MLS contract and is therefore a free agent and can go to Europe if he chooses. Even if he doesn't, a new MLS deal would still need to be negotiated and Parke (despite the recent drug suspension) is good enough to ask for and deserve a deal north of $100K a year.

Is Seattle really going to use one of its 10 expansion picks on a defender who A) isn't guaranteed to re-sign with the league B) has a four-game suspension waiting for him in 2009 and C) might wind up costing a pricey salary even if he does sign? Parke is actually one of the better defenders available in the expansion draft, but don't be surprised to see Parke head to a smaller European league before possibly returning to MLS to play for his hometown Philadelphia team in 2010. That doesn't mean the Red Bulls don't want Parke, but it did mean that Parke was a player the Red Bulls could factor on Seattle passing on.

Ultimately, that is what the expansion lists are, a game of chicken where teams leave players exposed they figure the expansion team either can't afford or will be scared off by. Is there a chance Seattle could try to be shrewd and take a player it either doesn't need or can't afford? Sure, as we saw when Toronto FC grabbed then-Real Salt Lake forward Jason Kreis in their expansion draft. The difference in that instance was that Toronto actually could have used Kreis and it was pretty well known that Kreis was a big part of Real Salt Lake's future plans. 

If anything, the TFC-Kreis situation has taught teams to be somewhat cautious and smarter about their process. Now a team like Chicago knows that while Seattle could theoretically take Pappa in order to trade him back to Chicago, the Fire can stand firm and force Seattle to either sign him or waive him (or trade him elsewhere, but the market for unproven young foreign players on six-figure salaries isn't a big one).

Seattle has three simple tasks coming up on Wednesday: find some players who can start for Sounders FC, find players who are good values and find some players who could draw a good price in a trade. For teams like Chicago and New York, they are banking that the quality players they did leave exposed have just enough risks and question marks to convince Seattle to look elsewhere.

Comments

[firefan06]

Still seems like the Fire are taking a big risk leaving Pappa exposed. I don't like it.

[Steve]

Thansk for the explanation on Pappa.

With the lack of transparency of contracts its tough for us fans to sort through the details when an event liek the expansion draft crops up.

Maybe a question for a future Q&A but now that the 2008 season is doen and dusted who are the MLS particpants for 2009 tourneys (SuperLiga / CONCACAF Champions League) ?

[Chrös]

Even though Seattle has Keller (and I think a replacement from USL all lined up) I would not be surprised at all if they bit on one of the goalies available. Plenty of teams could use a new goalie. If LA had any trade bait at all, they could easily get Seattle to take Onstad or Crayton and get a steal there.

[Steve]

Of course the game that the Fire are playing with Pappa is risky but who is the safer bet of the players they did protect?

Mapp is the only option for my money but the club obviously continues to be enamored with him based on the extension they just gave him. Rolfe, McBride, Blanco, Pause, Thorrington, Conde, Segares, Soumare, Busch are no go's.

So the question is Dasan Robinson w/o an escalator clause or Pappa with one as Ives explained.

Ironically, the thing the tow have in common is neither played significant minutes this year. So all the squawking by the fans is proabbly much ado about nothing.

[Chrös]

Steve,

Champions League: Columbus, New York, Houston, D.C. United

Superliga: New England, Chicago, Chivas USA, Kansas City

[Dannyc58]

The Red Bulls are protecting 4 friggin goal keepers. There is NO excuse for leaving Parke exposed at all.

[Curtis Spiteri]

I bet Seattle takes Pappa, and then makes the best of it by trading him to antother team. Why do I think that?

Seattle's management is smarter than the Fire's.

- Curtis
Long time Chicago fan

[brett]

Chrös - i am stoked that the league has arranged it so that not 1 team can participate in both tournys..... while CL is obviously more prestigious, but Superliga is still good exposure to quality mexican sides... hopefully they start to incorporate more leagues and actually treat it as a "UEFA" tourny...

[brett]

Curtis Spiteri - i think Prideaux is as good as gone... a local boy who has MLS experience, solid in the back, and isnt going anywhere....

not to downgrade Pappa, but IF seattle already have 2 most likely starter wingers, i think they have to pay attention to other spots.... Prideaux will add some solidarity to the back line.... Pappa would merely be fighting for a starting spot over an already establish player in their system and their DP O.o....

the more i look at it, the safer i feel for Pappa... BUT that doesnt mean they wont try to make him trade bait...

[GD]

FYI:
Seattle has already said that Freddie is going to be playing a central role and not as a winger. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Pappa but I also think they will have an eye on Prideaux...

[brett]

also with the likes of Khano Smith, Cooke, and Gaven, i think Pappa is truly not a thought.... Pappa has a couple games of partial experience, and all 3 of those wingers have at least 1 full season as a starter in experience.... i still feel winger isnt a spot they'll be hitting up...

[brett]

GD -oooooooooooooooooooooooohhh well thats interesting twist on things..... but i stand firm that they'll go with Prideaux especially with the likes of Smith, Cooke and Gaven all available...

[Jl]

Explain how a team can have an addendum in a contract that says if this player goes to another team, his salary jumps by leaps and bounds? Is he on loan, and these are terms of the loan? That seems genius by Chicago, and silly that MLS would allow such language in a contract.

Also, can't Seattle rework any contract they pick up? So couldn't they tell Pappa you are taking this contract or not playing in MLS, similar to what NE did to the Angulo kid?

[brett]

Jl- the 33k is what he's getting paid for his loan services... but if Seattle pick him, they have to sign him and his salary is bound to be drastically different...

whats so strange with that??

[brett]

Jl- per reworking contract: he doesnt have a contract for them to rework.... the league will be setting it when they sign him, just like any other player.... or at least thats my take on it.... still, the chance of losing Pappa?? risky....

i think the Fire are banking on losing Prideaux....

[BlueWhiteLion]

Thanks for the primer, Ives. I have never really paid attention to draft rules and strategy in the past, but am doing so now.

I was thinking along those lines of strategy when I saw Onstad unprotected. "Well, if Seattle has Keller, they probably won't shell out the bucks for Onstad". I guess I am learning. :)

[Modibo]

Another option for Seattle would be to take someone like Prideaux and deal him to a team that needs defenders desperately, like, oh, say, LA. That's a strategy that someone on the evil evil evil Site That Will Not Be Named suggested.

I don't like the idea of Stephen King going unprotected; he can play in the middle of the park and if he stays out of injury trouble looks like he'll be a very competent and at times stylish midfielder in the years to come.

[Iammetro]

"FYI:Seattle has already said that Freddie is going to be playing a central role and not as a winger. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Pappa but I also think they will have an eye on Prideaux...Posted by: GD"

Thats what they said about Beckham. And everyone knows how that turned out.

[Mike G]

I understand the argument about Parke but I think that Seattle still signs him. With the banned substance issue i think it will make it harder to move abroad which I think it makes it easier for the league to lock him up. Hey may still end up a bit above 100k but with the new roster structure that is going to be the new average in MLS.

[Ric]

BlueWhiteLion,

Remember, though, that this is still a risk because Seattle could take Onstad, then trade him to, say, LA, which needs a keeper.

Of course, there's also a rumor out there that Houston and Seattle have an agreement that Sounders won't take a Dynamo player (or one pre-approved by them) as part of an upcoming trade for Jaqua.

[joe k]

khano smith is god-awful. i'd like to see him stay on new england so i can watch richards tear him apart all over the field.

[RK]

>The Red Bulls are protecting 4 friggin goal keepers.

Who? I read the list, but I honestly don't recognize any keepers. Cepero isn't even listed.

[Felix]

I'm not a fan of leaving Pappa exposed as well as a Fire fan. I understand the method to the madness, but with Blanco being loaned out to Santos Laguna, there's a chance he might enjoy being in Mexico again, and want to stay. So the Fire could lose Blanco and Pappa, I'm not a proponent of this.

[Brett]

RK: The list is of UNprotected players.

Cepero, Conway, Boss, and Paterson-Sewell (or whatever his name is) are all protected.

[RK]

Ah, that would make a lot of sense :) Anyway, I wouldn't have recognized the last two. Thanks.

That is quite inexplicable...

[Eugene]

Per the owners' discussion around Ljungberg's signing, I believe they plan to use him centrally and not as a winger. Of course things could change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up some of the good wing players made available -- like Eddie Gaven and Corey Ashe.

[Nuvinho]

Ives, are you going to do a mock expansion draft?

[smorebs]

Caleb Patterson-Sewell was unprotected. Still 3 Gks though...that's a bit much epically leaving your back line completely exposed. Then again, they way they played this year as a whole, i can't say i blame them.

[brett]

Felix - yea that could be rough....

[Dannyc58]

We can afford to lose 1 of those keepers, and to top it off, Seattle has Keller anyway!

I'm FURIOUS over this. I may not re-new season tickets.

[A.S.]

There's something screwed up with the Red Bulls list that Ives posted. As far as I can tell, according to Ives's list, they've protected 14 players:

Juan Pablo Angel
Terry Boss
Andrew Boyens
Danny Cepero
Gabriel Cichero
Jon Conway
Kevin Goldthwaite
Macoumba Kandji
Dane Richards
Jorge Rojas
Luke Sassano
Seth Stammler
Sinisa Ubiparipovic
Dave van den Bergh

So who knows if they really protected 3 keepers. I suspect not, and the list is just screwed up.

[g-loff]

As far as RBNY protecting 3 keepers, I bet they plan on trading Conway (probably get a pretty penny from a team like LA or Chivas), and most of the RBNY defenders did not look particularly great in the latter half of the season.

[The Athority]

I can see Jeff Parke playing for Arena in LA next year.

[kahlva]

Yes, the lists (at least for the Red Bulls) are screwed up. I saw a different list on Wikipedia that seemed more likely.

The way these lists are it would mean Red Bulls were able to protect 14 players...

[Ben]

I hope the Sounders DO NOT pick Onstad ... I really can't stand that guy. With Keller starting and Chris Eylander his backup, Seattle will be just fine in goal. No need to go after Onstad the Grouch. If they go after a keeper, it'll be Preston Burpo.

I think Jaqua and Prideaux are no-brainers, and Nik Besagno is also a local boy who might be worth going after. Jorge Flores would be interesting. Ante Razov might have a couple of years left.

Snagging Eddie Gaven though would be huge.

[BlueWhiteLion]

So, is the team drafting (in this case Seattle) required to pay the current salary, the going rate, negotiate a deal with the player or team, or what? What determines the cost of players they draft?

[BlueWhiteLion]

Secondly, how does the trade thing work, (Ric, talking partly to you), say, if Seattle DID take Onstad, what do they pay for him and how do they trade him off to someone else (and what do they pay?)?

[Ethan]

Ric:

Where did you hear that rumor? THouston has put up several very enticing players. Wade Barrett and Craig Waibel have been key elements for one of the best defenses in recent MLS history (not just this season but over the last several). Corey Ashe should be a starting winger in this league. Pat Onstead is great trade bait. Patrick Ianni is a solid young player. And Nate Jaqua is an established forward who longs to play in Seattle. Perhaps part of the Houston deal is that the don't take one of those players, but a Houston player will definitely go. If they don't, they are effectively choosing to trade for Jaqua when they could have him for free. That doesn't make sense.

[Ethan]

As for Freddie, why play him in center midfield? His strength is on the wing. Hopefully Seattle will learn from the Galaxy's error when they put Beckham in middle, but every indication is that they will/have not.

[onionsack]

Leaving Parke unprotected was an error no matter how you slice it. While i agree these are gambles to begin with, the secret of gmabling is to reduce your risk as much as possible and bet on the favorable odds.

Now i realize teams will take players to trade, but 100K goalkeepers are not great trade bait especially with 4 game suspensions. I think Conway nprotected would have been the wise choice. At least lest risky than Parke.

[SonicDeathMonkey]

Ethan, like most rumors people mention on here, I'm sure it was not a reputable source. Possibly the infamous "bartender from New York" gave him the scoop.

[Ives Galarcep]

Onionsack, I humbly disagree with your assessment that "100K goalkeepers are not great trade bait." First off, 100K is actually below average for a starting goalkeeper in MLS so getting a GK who can start and play okay for 100K is actually a net gain.

I would argue that goalkeepers are hotter commodities than defenders because there are far fewer established goalkeepers out there (and most of the top GK in the league are getting up there in age). I like Parke and think he's a solid defender but the fact remains Conway has more trade value and will fetch a bigger prize once he is put on the market.

[The Athority]

Ethan,

With all due respect......if you think Freddie's strength is on the wings......you haven't seen him play in the past 2 years.

[Barry Jive and His Uptown Five]

Chrös, have the Superliga teams been finalized?

The Fire, Chivas and KC will draw well. New England? Not so much.

Hopefully the league places the Fire and Chivas in different groups and hosts most of the games at Toyota Park and the HDC.

[Ives Galarcep]

My mock expansion draft is coming shortly so stay tuned.

[TL]

If Nate Jaqua is a free agent at the end of the season, then Seattle doesn't need to either work a deal with Houston or pick him in the draft. I would assume someone else on the Houston list is going to be swiped up.

[Ethan]

Athority:

No offense taken. I'm not going to say that he is the winger he once was, but I haven't seen him play particularly well in the middle either, and I still think that the wing is his best position. He still is a decent crosser, and he is great at running into the box when needed as well.

On a random note, I went to his wikipedia and noticed that he was the 2002 MVP of the Premiership. That surprised me quite a bit. That's certainly a bigger personal award than Beckham has won...unless you count those two ESPYs he got (which are an embarrassment to soccer fans all over the world).

[AlexS]

Seattle will take Jaqua, but Onstad would be a silly choice anyways. He's said that he doesn't want to move again soon, and if he isn't playing in Houston there are good chances that he'll retire and become a goalkeeping coach.

I was kinda hoping that Houston wouldn't give up Jaqua and trade him for Chris Eylander to be the future keeper after Onstad retires, but if you look at who's protected (with the international rules forcing the Dynamo to protect either Kepne or Caig) I want to lose people on that list even less than I want a future at keeper. If Ashe is unprotected, think about the others who did make Houston's list. Who do you loose to keep Jaqua? Boswell? Eddie Robinson? I don't think so. Lose the player that you were going to and suffer as few losses as possible.

[AlexS]

@TL

There are no free agents in MLS. Jaqua couldn't play for Seattle - even if they were willing to sign him for more than Houston was - unless Seattle traded for his rights.

[Drew D (From FL)]

Ives,
How is Jose Angulo on the rev's exposed list if he doesn't have a contract with them? Or does he have a contract? Or is it just a discovery claim still? can they expose a player with just a discovery claim?

[The Athority]

Ethan,

Good post. Freddie was the heart and soul (outside of Viera) of those Arsenal teams. With his bright red dyed hair (when he had hair), he was such a fire plug and spark.

Seems that some players lose it all of a sudden and he is one of them. From one season to the next he was done. He lost that step that let him get around the outside and he doesn't have the tight ball control to fool defenders easily.

He is a good crosser, is smart, and is accomplished.

I just don't think that Ronnie O'Brien is a DP. That is the player that I can most closely associate him with.

[Strider]

BLW - If Seattle take Onstad, they get him at his current salary. Remember, it is not the individual teams that a player signs with but MLS. So, if they want to trade him that salary goes with him and they just have to get the best deal they can for him. E.g. if LA wanted Onstad, maybe they would give up a young, less expensive player like Franklin who was protected. I wouldn't, but they need a decent keeper badly. Of course, so do several other teams, Chivas, Colorado, DC, etc.

[Ethan]

The Athority:

Thanks, you as well. You might be right. I'm hoping Freddie can regain some of the magic he once had. In MLS, he won't need quite as much of it because of the talent drop, and perhaps, his time in West Ham was misleading. It is hard to go from one of the best clubs in the world to a mid-table Premier club. The passes that would find Henry might not find Dean Ashton (who is a fine player, but no Henry). We will see though. If nothing else, Freddie is a hard worker, and I imagine, that even if he is unable to recapture the form of his Arsenal days, he will endear himself to Seattle's fans for that alone.

[undrafted]

Angulo is already signed to the league
http://www.mlsplayers.org/files/9_7_08_salary_info_club.pdf

MLS for some reason is letting NE wait until the postseason to claim him. But I suppose since New England has discovery rights, he's now theirs to expose.

[Tim F.]

Ives,

Couldn't someone negotiate a trade with Seattle for Pappa? Even if no, Seattle would be foolish to pass on Pappa. Let's see if the Sounders make the right moves tomorrow.

[Jason]

Regarding taking a player and trading him, I'd say these are the two most likely.

1) Kevin Hartman (to LA/CHV). A better keeper and Crayton, and way younger than Onstad. Of course, you'd have to get something back. He's played for LA before. You could trade him to Chivas, they have more prospects and talent.

2) Ronnie O'Brien. He hates playing on turf, but I bet many teams would give a lot for a RW of that quality (DC, RSL).

[bangersandmash]

Seattle are already in the DP bind -- the blew 400K on one guy. Now they gotta sign the rest of their squad + bench on the cheap. (see: Galaxy). Given the last season of MLS I'm willing to bet that half the league is shopping for strikers, half the league is shopping for defenders and my TFC is shopping for both (no one really needs midfielders right now). If Seattle was smart they'd draft heavy in areas where they could sell and then sell-on for allocation money to allow them to bring in a few 300K-calibre players.

[Ives Galarcep]

Drew, Angulo has a contract with MLS. The Revs turned down the chance to sign Angulo but apparently the MLS rules dictate that the team with the last chance to sign him have his rights until the next year's discovery period, which begins next month.

[Ives Galarcep]

Regarding Pappa, I've been told by solid sources that a high salary kicks in during the next year of his loan deal, which would make him an unlikely target for a team looking for solid veteran defenders and young forwards. Prideaux is an option off the Fire list, as is CJ Brown and Calen Carr. Personally I like Stephen King among the Fire's available player but Seattle has midfielders and there are some other good midfield options available.

[Tim F.]

High salary or not (unless above $200K), I woulng take a chance on Pappa. He has looked solid and every roster is now 24 not 28. It has to be Pappa or King selected from the Fire and I would take a chance with Pappa.