Fulham wins, keeps survival hopes alive (A closer look at the road ahead)

Brian McBride's game-winning header goal not only gave Fulham a vital 1-0 victory against Everton on Sunday, it breathed life into a relegation battle that the Cottagers looked to have already lost.

Now, with Sunday's crucial victory in the bag, Fulham can seriously start thinking about making a serious run in its final eight matches. That is music to the ears of Cottagers fans as well as U.S. Soccer fans, what with Fulham fielding five American players (all five of which played on Sunday).

The distance from safety is now three points, which isn't that great a gap. Fulham is in 19th place, two points behind Bolton (which has a game in hand, but that game is against Chelsea), and three points behind Birmingham. Sunderland sits four points ahead while Newcastle and Reading are five points ahead of the Cottagers. Birmingham and Newcastle face off on Monday, which means either one or both will extend their leads on Fulham.

So how will Fulham avoid relegation? A closer look at their remaining schedule and the schedules of the teams they are chasing shows that escaping the drop can be done.

Here are the eight games Fulham has left on its schedule:

• at Newcastle
• at Derby County
• vs. Sunderland
• at Reading
• vs. Liverpool
• at Manchester City
• vs. Birmingham
• at Portsmouth

That is a VERY manageable schedule, with five matches against teams in the bottom seven. I know it's tough to call any schedule manageable when Fulham only has four wins all year, but the fear of relegation tends to help give some teams a boost.

To put Fulham's remaining schedule into perspective, consider Bolton's remaining schedule:

• at Manchester United
• vs. Manchester City
• vs. Arsenal
• at Aston Villa
• vs. West Ham United
• at Middlesbrough
• at Tottenham
• vs. Sunderland
• at Chelsea

Yes folks, it's safe to say that Bolton is toast. Games against Top 10 teams await in the next five matches and Bolton finishes up with a trip to Stamford Bridge. OUCH.

Now that we can safely assume that Fulham can pass Bolton, we can look at Birmingham and Sunderland's schedules. Here's Birmingham's remaining sked:

• vs. Newcastle
• at Reading
• vs. Manchester City
• at Wigan
• vs. Everton
• at Aston Villa
• vs. Liverpool
• at Fulham
• vs. Blackburn

With five matches against Top 10 teams and no easy home games after Newcastle, Birmingham is certainly vulnerable. If Fulham can turn things around then the May 3 home match against Birmingham could be for a place in the EPL.

Here is Sunderland's remaining schedule:

• at Aston Villa
• vs. West Ham
• at Fulham
• vs. Manchester City
• at Newcastle
• vs. Middlesbrough
• at Bolton
• vs. Arsenal

Three of Sunderland's next four are against Top 10 teams and the other match is at Fulham. The Cottagers win that one and they suddenly close the gap with the Black Cats. Like Bolton, Sunderland has a monster of a last game, facing Arsenal, which may need the match to win the league.

In short, Fulham's chances of avoiding relegation aren't nearly as slim as you might have imagined. Today's win against Everton was vital to revive the dream, but now the Cottagers need to deliver more quality performances and avoid late-game blunders (and any more terrible officiating decisions against them).

What do you think of Fulham's chances for survival? Share your thoughts below.

Comments

[Ian]

Come on you Whites!

[DURSK]

I think Fulham can pull it off. If they can get 8 points out of the next 4 matches (very possible) they will put themselves in a good spot to avoid relegation. I personally think EJ, McBride, and Bullard will carry them out of relegation. EJ will provide significant goals just as Dempsey did last season. The next 8 games for the EPL is going to be decisive in determining who is gonna be dropped for next season - I hope its Birmingham...

[Neal]

Great post Ives. Dont forget, I know its ounds crazy, but NEWCASTLE could arguably go down.

[El Steve]

Arguably? They've been, by far, the worst team in the EPL since Keegan's appointment... that includes Derby.

I'm a big Fulham fan... team shows so many moments of promise then some lapse in play or officiating sends it all foul.

I wish there could be more service on the outside for McBride... he mentioned during the week that the team needs to take responsibility and he stepped up. Any 50/50 hear him hit his McHead... it'd be nice to see him getting a steady supply on the outside.

[aristotle]

I really hope they can pull it off somehow, but I still just can't see it. A lot of people talk about how inept Fulham are at scoring goals, but I think they are even worse off for their inability to create chances. That's why I don't think all of the effort in the world is going to matter.

The only team I can see them passing is Bolton, and I'm not too sure about that. Oddly enough, based on play, Newcastle would seem like the only second team that they could pass to get to safety. Newcastle seems like they have come unglued but for some reason it's hard to imagine them being relegated. Oh well, here's to hoping!

[Dannyc58]

Ives, Crazy as it sounds I'd put Newcastle's schedule up there. That defense cannot stop ANYONE. If they lose tomororw, they are in serious trouble...

[Fuego Fanatico]

Great post!

[ManicMessiah]

As a Newcastle fan, I would say its not crazy at all to put them up here on that list.

[aristotle]

One more thing about Fulham's chances; people are exaggerating how far they are from safety for some reason. Apart from the fact that Birmingham has a game in hand, which by this time tomorrow could have them six points ahead of Fulham, even if Birmingham lost tomorrow, and then lost their next game, and Fulham won their next game, they would still be behind Birmingham on goal difference. That doesn't sound so close now, does it? Sorry, I'm not trying to be negative. I just don't want false hope. They need to do a little more before we can say they are getting closer to getting out of the bottom three. They also HAVE to win a game on the road this season!

[Patrick]

If McBride and Jimmy Bullard were healthy all season, there would be no relegation fight, but those are the breaks.

Come on you Whites!

[Dominghosa]

Why did it have to start against the Toffees? Ah, it's their own fault.

[paul lorinczi]

Fulham were dismal under Sanchez.

I am starting to see the influence of Hodgsen on the team. They look much better now than a month ago. Their ball movement is better than it was.

I think they have as good a chance as any to stay up.

I think EJ is going to make it. He looked a lot better this week than the previous 2.

Fulham have a chance and Hodgsen was the right choice to do it.

[Aaron]

Wow, great post. There's plenty of news out there about Fulham keeping their hopes alive but that was clear and to the point.

[JeffM]

Thanks for covering this Ives - I know there are a lot of Fulham fans (like myself) among the SBI Mafia.

I agree - this certainly looks doable. Not easy by any stretch of the imagination, but within reach. Fulham seemed to have pretty much settled on a defensive alignment that is working fairly well well. Hodgson has also gone to a 4-4-2 in recent games, which is a welcome adjustment. Now, I just wish that Hodgson would figure out what everyone in the US already knows: Dempsey is better than Eddie Jonson. McBride/Dempsey is a much more potent strike force than McBride/Johnson. I don't quite understand how Dempsey somehow played himself out of the side; from my perspective, he's been Fulham's best player this year apart from Jimmy Bullard.

[Johnny]

I figured I would post this again for aristotle Remaining Fulham Schedule.

0 Newcastle
Fulham 1
(3points)

1 Derby
Fulham 2
(3points)

1 Fulham
Sunderland 0
(3points)

1 Reading
Fulham 1
(1point)

0 Fulham
Liverpool 2

2Man City
Fulham 3
(3points)

1 Fulham
Birmingham 0
(3points)

2 Portsmouth
Fulham 2
(1point)

23 + 17 =40 and survival for the whites.
COME ON YOU WHITES!!!

[Danny]

Funny, I couldn't care less about Fulham... except that they have half our national team playing for them. Country over club says I.

Come on you Whites! The entire U.S. is rooting for you!

BTW, when the hell is someone going to figure out that Fulham could make a fortune if they would just sell jerseys here in the states?

[Matt]

Ives,
A crazy thought, but due to Fulham needing service from the wings TO McBride whose knack for heading home goals is obvious, wouldn't a winger with great ability for pin-point crosses be a solution.....a bargain like Eddie Lewis?
Too old to really compete in the EPL now, but McBride is an example of the American contingent being "part of solution" that actually contributes to the little sucess Fulham does achieve. They just don't have enough the right complementary players and talent inplace.

[j1]

Simon Davies on fullham provides decent service but they still need someone else. The Galaxy should try picking up McBride if fullham get relegated then they would have a real target forward for beckham to serve crosses and freekicks to.

[Dannyc58]

Johnny,

Some of your scores are too optimistic in my opinion...

[aristotle]

Johnny:

Sorry, but I think you are going to have to give up on the 40 points. Man UTD. might not finish that strong!

[fieldsy]

if mcbride had been playing all year, fulham might not be in this spot. can he unretire for the national team?

[MiamiAl]

I think having Keller back there will really help provide some stability. A smart experienced keeper who knows how to organize the back line. Whether they get relegated or not, Fulham had some bad breaks this year, and some awful calls against them! But that ain't nothin' new for the USA boys...I think they will make it. But it will be up to Dempsey, McBride, GAM, and Keller...

[fcmuenchweiler]

Somehow, I think Newcastle is going down...their poor run of form is incredible. Bolton, Reading, or Sunderland are my other candidates for the drop. Somehow, I think Birmingham avoids the drop...they're playing really, really well at the moment.

[YankatOxford]

A great win for Fulham, and an enjoyable match, but they still have it all to do.

There is no mystery as to why Eddie Johnson is playing, as poor as his technique may be, he has the pace that everyone in his side lacks. If Fulham stay up the Americans involved will have to continue to play well through out.

Also, don't forget about a goal difference as a tie breaker. Fulham are effectively 4 points behind Birmingham.

[hartman]

i know clint's form has been off, but i've got to believe he's a better option on the flank than andreasen. get him back to his natural position and let him go at defenders! mcbride and ej, is a good combo...even though ej is lazy. he never seems to leave it all on the field. the 442 suits fulham's personnel, hopefully roy will go with it the rest of the way. and it's not hard to see that they're in this spot 100% because of lawrie sanchez. he spent all that money on some shite players, seriously, healy, bouazza, baird. fayed should sue him for misuse of funds.

[NJ Guy Stuck in DC]

Fulham is much better with McBride. EJ needs to start finishing before defenders figure him out.

I'd like to see Fulham avoid relegation, but I won't exactly be brokenhearted if they don't b/c whenever I get a chance to see the EPL on FSC it seems to be a preference for Fulham and Reading. I don't exactly jones for the quality of either team when I get a chance to watch.

[Thom]

Ives,

The only "easy games", and I use that term very loosely, are vs. clubs who don't have anything to play for -no chance of Europe and at the same time no chance of being relagated.

Every other match should be a dog fight.(form and injuries excluded) Therefore I see only West Ham as the only canidate to fit this criteria at the this stage and possibly Spurs. Everyone else still has a dog in the fight-except Derby of course.

[Ives]

Thom, very good point about no easy games, which is why I avoided calling Fulham's schedule easy.

[colin]

Call me biased but I think bocanegra is much more valuable back there than hangeland, hughe, or baird. Why isn't he playing? I'm glad they finally sat Niemi. Keller is much better.

[pat]

Check out this pretty cool link courtesy of the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/predictor/default.stm

[Charles Hedji]

You people don't have the first clue about soccer do you? There is a reason why Fulham is in the bottom half. They are not the worst team in the league, but they do not know how to kill off a game. McBride coming back is not going to save them. You have to put their whole season in perspective. You think they will do in eight games what they failed to do throughout the season? And who is the idiot who thinks Fulham will beat Manchester City? Are you insane? Stop dreaming and be honest with yourselves. Fulham is better than they are playing, but they are not going to survive, because teams like Birmingham and Sunderland have more bite than they do. And do you honestly think they will beat Newcastle? Okay Newcastle is playing like crap, but don't fool yourselves into thinking that Fulham will run the rule over them. Talent-wise, Fulham just does not have it. They will go down, and they will own the Championship next year and come back up, hopefully with better players in all the starting positions. I feel bad for the American players, but a year in the physical world of the championship will help them. If Johnson is scoring left and right in the championship it will help him a lot. I don't see him scoring to keep Fulham up. Having good American talent does not guarantee a club survival.

[colin]

Apparently you don't follow Championship football... there's no way Fulham is going to go down and own that league. It's just as competetive as the Premiership, if not more so. They'd have an easier time staying up this year than going down and trying to be top three next...

[FFCBadger]

Dont forget Wigan!! These are my dark horse for the drop:

Saturday, 22 March 2008
Barclays Premier League
Blackburn v Wigan, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Saturday, 29 March 2008
Barclays Premier League
Portsmouth v Wigan, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Saturday, 05 April 2008
Barclays Premier League
Wigan v Birmingham, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Monday, 14 April 2008
Barclays Premier League
Chelsea v Wigan, 20:00
-------------------------------------
Saturday, 19 April 2008
Barclays Premier League
Wigan v Tottenham, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Saturday, 26 April 2008
Barclays Premier League
Wigan v Reading, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Saturday, 03 May 2008
Barclays Premier League
Aston Villa v Wigan, 15:00
-------------------------------------
Sunday, 11 May 2008
Barclays Premier League
Wigan v Man Utd, 15:00