Handicapping the MLS Golden Boot race

MLSHCSS20110910243

Photo by Howard C. Smith/ISIphotos.com

This year's race for the MLS Golden Boot is congested, unclear and littered with a few surprise candidates. With about a month remaining in the 2011 MLS season, there's no better time to break down the prime contenders and see who will emerge from the pack with the most goals. 

Thierry Henry and Landon Donovan currently lead the race, with each scoring 12 goals for their respective teams. They haven't been able to pull away from the pack, though, and they're followed by an eager and capable group of players.

D.C.'s Charlie Davies, Columbus' Andres Mendoza, Vancouver's Eric Hassli, San Jose's Chris Wondolowski, FC Dallas' Brek Shea, Chicago's Dominic Oduro, D.C.'s Dwayne De Rosario and Real Salt Lake's Alvaro Saborio all are within striking range, which should make for an intriguing battle over the final weeks of the season. 

Here's a closer look at the contenders for the MLS Golden Boot and their odds (completely arbitrary and meant for conversational purposes only) at securing the award:

MLS GOLDEN BOOT CONTENDERS

Thierry Henry, New York Red Bulls (12 goals)

Henry has carried the Red Bulls offensively, doing all of his damage from the run of play. Injuries have limited his effectiveness at times and have kept him out of matches, but with the Red Bulls desperately in need of making the postseason to save face, they'll look to their leader to make it happen. Luke Rodgers' return to the lineup only helps Henry as well, as the two have developed a great rapport atop the formation.

ODDS: 2-to-1

Landon Donovan, Los Angeles Galaxy (12 goals)

The Galaxy captain is enjoying a fine season, and his 12 goals already tie the second-most he's ever scored in a season (something he had done four other times). He's been getting it done in the run of play and from the penalty spot, and while the Galaxy may look to rest Donovan down the stretch once (and if) the Supporters' Shield has been clinched, he remains as dangerous a threat as there is in the league to find the back of the net.

ODDS: 3-to-1

Charlie Davies, D.C. United (11 goals)

Davies is playing with a rediscovered bounce in his step, and he busted out of an extended slump with his recent hat trick against Chivas USA. It's hard to know what to expect from Davies, who got off to an incredibly hot start before seemingly hitting a wall during the summer. D.C. has the most games remaining out of any team in the league (eight), including a rematch with Chivas on Wednesday. Penalty kicks, of which Davies has converted four this season, also remain a factor.

ODDS: 8-to-1

Eric Hassli, Vancouver Whitecaps (10 goals)

Vancouver's French DP has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal expansion year for the Whitecaps. A deeper look into Hassli's goal total shows that he's tallied all of his scores over the course of six games, including four two-goal efforts. That tells us a couple of things: It's tough to count on Vancouver's attack to be consistent, but he's as much of a wild card in this race as anybody else.

ODDS: 12-to-1

Brek Shea, FC Dallas (10 goals)

Shea is expected to return to the FCD lineup after a minor groin injury, and his return couldn't come at a better time, with Dallas struggling to find its way. Shea's emergence as an MVP candidate has been one of the stories of the season, but if he gets called in for the U.S. national team's friendlies against Honduras and Ecuador, he would have to miss FCD's game on Oct. 12, leaving him with just four league matches to up his goal tally.

ODDS: 14-to-1

Andres Mendoza, Columbus Crew (11 goals)

Mendoza has made the most of his opportunities from the penalty spot, which have accounted for five of his 11 goals, and he's also in solid form, scoring four times in the last five games. The problem is that Crew have scored the fewest goals among all playoff contenders and are hardly an offensive juggernaut, meaning that unless the 33-year-old Peruvian can find his way to the spot a few more times, he'll end up as an also-ran. At the very least, he's earning his DP tag this year.

ODDS: 14-to-1

Chris Wondolowski, San Jose Earthquakes (10 goals)

Wondo can't do it again, can he? After going through a summer swoon (which coincided with the Earthquakes falling out of the playoff picture), the 2010 Golden Boot winner is still looming as a threat and has scored twice in his last three matches. The problem is, San Jose's schedule the rest of the way is hardly a piece of cake, with matches at Portland, Colorado and Seattle and games at home against Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas among the last six fixtures of the season.

ODDS: 15-to-1

Dwayne De Rosario, D.C. United (9 goals)

De Rosario put D.C. on his back this summer, at one point scoring six straight goals for the club. A player who has a penchant for showing up in big games, De Rosario will be looked at to carry the load again for D.C., especially with Chris Pontius out for the year with a fractured leg. Like Davies, De Rosario has a league-high eight more games to pad his stats.

ODDS: 16-to-1

Dominic Oduro, Chicago Fire (10 goals)

While Wondolowski was an unlikely winner last year, Oduro would probably be just as unlikely. Granted he's played in a starting role before, but Oduro's trademark was his inability to finish despite his tremendous pace and ability to get by defenders. He evidently recalibrated his aimer since arriving in Chicago and has been a consistent threat, already doubling his previous high for goals in a season. With five goals in his last seven games, the speedy Ghanaian has proven he is for real but is still a bit of an underdog in the race for the Boot.

ODDS: 20-to-1

Alvaro Saborio, Real Salt Lake (8 goals)

Saborio is tied with seven other players with his eight goals, but considering that RSL has played the second-fewest games in the league as of now, he has more chances to add to his tally than most of his competition. Although he trails in the race by four goals and is somewhat of a longshot to win, don't count out the RSL striker, who has seven matches to go and has proven he can score in bunches when in a groove.

ODDS: 36-to-1

——————

Who do you see winning the Golden Boot? Which contender has surprised you the most with his goal tally so far this season? Who did you think would win the award at the beginning of the year?

Share your thoughts below.

This entry was posted in Major League Soccer, MLS- Chicago Fire, MLS- Columbus Crew, MLS- D.C. United, MLS- FC Dallas, MLS- LA Galaxy, MLS- New York Red Bulls, MLS- Real Salt Lake, MLS- San Jose Earthquakes, MLS- Vancouver Whitecaps. Bookmark the permalink.

35 Responses to Handicapping the MLS Golden Boot race

  1. qax says:

    Shea or Donovan will win it. Or Freddy Adu.

  2. Poo says:

    I am shocked that Oduro is in here.

  3. QuakesIn2k12 says:

    red bulls are garbage and henry has lost his motivation so i don’t see him winning it.

    donovan, mendoza, and cd9 are completely reliant on pk’s so they need the refs to bail them out to keep them in the hunt. can’t see them doing it.

    shea is too young and inconsistent. he won’t do it. dero is too old.

    it’s going to be Wondo without a doubt the guy is a stud.

  4. Mike Caramba says:

    I’ll take 10k on everyone not named Landon or Thierry at those odds.

  5. jonk says:

    Thanks for the unbiased take.

  6. Good Jeremy says:

    Davies is my guess, but I could easily see Henry too. Wondo probably can’t squeeze the four or five he will need (after Davies, Donovan, and Henry keep scoring) against the teams left on his schedule, and Donovan won’t score as many now that Keane is a reliable target. Davies has great support, lots of games left, and takes DC’s penalties.

  7. malkin says:

    Sounds like you’re gonna be out $80k (ok, so you’re only out $50k if Davies pulls of a few more game winning dives.)

  8. hendrix says:

    Too bad Koevermans only joined TFC mid-season… if he started the season with TFC he’d be on pace for 29 goals, blowing Henry and the rest out of the race.

  9. d-list says:

    Expect nothing less than stupidity from San Jose fans.

  10. Ian says:

    Same could be said for Robbie Keane, with 2 goals in 3 league games. But both are purely hypothetical at the point in the season.

  11. Colin says:

    No one is beating King Henry.

  12. Mike Caramba says:

    Huh? If Davies wins, I break even. Anyone else, I show profit. Average payout on those 8 players is 2-1 on my 80k investment. I wouldn’t say it’s the optimal bet, but I think it’s a good play.

  13. malkin says:

    Ya, my bad. I quickly scrolled through and saw the “3-1″ right above Charlie Davies name.

  14. Brit says:

    Frustrating for the Dynamo how Wondo and Oduro have random break out seasons once they leave Houston.

  15. Hopper says:

    Wondo? Without a doubt? A stud? Are you kidding?

    Also, Earthquakes supporters don’t have the right to call other teams “garbage.”

  16. Predicto says:

    Findley scores for Forest 1 – 1 Newcastle United

  17. Eggbert says:

    DeRo should be better than 15-1. You need to look at which teams he is facing and how many games DC have left.

  18. Brent McD. says:

    As a Dynamo fan, I also am shocked. Oduro couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn for Houston. Would be just lovely if a former Dynamo player won the Golden Boot for the second year running.

  19. VADCUfan says:

    Completely reliant on pks? CD9 has not scored on a pk since June (or mebe July… point is it has been awhile). Both Donovan and Mendoza also have the skill to make it. It’s a wide open race and Wondolowski plays on one of the worst teams in the league; so if anything he is probably the least likely to put up big numbers of any of these guys.

  20. Tim says:

    IMO, PK should not count towards the goal tally for the boot. Too often the players who are actually fouled are not the one who takes the PK.

    I’d like to see the stats with the PK not tallied into the totals.

  21. RSLin208 says:

    Sabo has his fair share of PK’s this year, too. IMO, he’s been bad most of the year, but better of late.

  22. Matt says:

    As a NYRB fan, I am not very confident in Henry winning the Golden Boot. He continues to not travel to road games which will limit his chances (even though 4 of their last 6 games are at home).

  23. Supsam says:

    I really do believe that PKs should not count when considering a players goal total. Correct me if im wrong but i do believe that both Wondo and Henry (and maybe Oduro) have scored all their goals not from the spot and are deserving of the Golden Boot. But rules are rules, i guess. # of goals not scored from the PK should at least be the tie breaker instead of the # of assists

  24. QuakesIn2k12 says:

    check the numbers without including pk’s then get back to me. yeah that’s what i thought. including pk’s in the golden boot race is weak sauce. score like a man.

  25. A wise man once says:

    If it weren’t for PKs, Buddle would’ve won the Boot last year instead of Wondolowski.

  26. tbkh says:

    Andres Mendoza is awful. It would be an embarressment to the league if he won.

  27. jeremy says:

    If you are going to include 8 goal scorers, you should include Omar Bravo and Kei Kamara. Both are capable of scoring spurts…

  28. jeremy says:

    Don’t forget Kei Kamara….

  29. abc says:

    Maybe it’s not random?

  30. Javi says:

    Ti-ti about to catch fire with a late season push by NY

  31. DETROITFIRE says:

    I think it says something about the teaching methods of Kinnear, possibly. There’s something to be said for instilling confidence in an inconsistent striker.

  32. DETROITFIRE says:

    Correct, Oduro scored all of his goals from the run of play, and looked much more confident than Calen Carr ever did.

  33. Melissa says:

    Mendoza doesn’t take the PK’s for Columbus. Cunningham does.

    Henry has been scoring even though his team is in lull.

    Charlie Davies netted a hat trick 2 games ago.

    Brek Shea is one of Dallas’ most consistent players this season, and he’s doing it as a midfielder.

    Wondolowski, I’m a huge fan of but the service he’s had this season from his midfielders have hurt his scoring, plus he’s missed sitters all year and then missed a PK vs the fire. Wondolowski won’t win it.

    What would age have to do with scoring? Sense De Ro went to DC United he’s been a goal/assist machine, he’s one of the main reasons DC is threatening for the last playoff spot.

    Its fans like these who give San Jose fans a bad name.

  34. Wayne says:

    Still give me 15-1 on Dwayne De Rosario?

  35. Wayne says:

    You called it Eggbert!